Paul Skenes’ pitch velocity has fallen off an absolute cliff in his third year in the Major Leagues.
Hall of Famer (in my book) Curt Schilling has weighed in on the regression on X:
Schilling’s issue is mechanical. Skenes’ arm drifts behind him toward third base instead of coming straight back, which strains everything from the shoulder down. He’s been calling Skenes a max-effort thrower since 2025 and said the delivery wouldn’t hold up under a starter’s workload. He also says he called this before the WBC.
The numbers back the alarm. Skenes threw 404 pitches at 99+ mph as a rookie in 2024. He threw 223 last season. This year he has thrown only three. You read that correctly, three pitches over 99 mph this year for Mr. Gas.
Theories range from being too fat, intentionally scaling back to save his arm for the big market teams (nonsensical, how would he get a big-money contract like this), or having his aura drained by his gymnast girlfriend. Also absurd, everyone in the show has a hot girlfriend, Skenes’ just happens to be the most visible.
Fat pitcher slander will not be tolerated on this platform. For one thing, Skenes isn’t actually fat. And if you think being fat as a pitcher means you won’t be successful, CC Sabathia, Bartolo Colon, David Wells, and George Herman Ruth would all like to have a word with you.
Personally, I’m inclined to agree more with Schilling’s analysis, along with the possibility of an undisclosed injury that is plaguing his current season.
On August 11 in Miami he was pulled after 65 pitches. His fastball averaged a career-low 95.7 and never touched 97. He got four whiffs on 34 swings, the worst rate of his career. Manager Don Kelly insisted it wasn’t injury-related. Though the denial doesn’t have me convinced.
Tim Lincecum’s body broke down after a few early dominant seasons, but Timmy the Kid did not have the powerful frame Skenes possesses.
Whatever the case may be, Skenes needs a significant reset to address the issue and protect his long term future in the league. It’s imperative he and the Pirates figure it out sooner than later, the franchise has three more years of contractual control for their ace, and Skenes has yet to even hit his arbitration money years. For a guy approaching his prime earning window, this becomes a potential $300m question for him.
Photo: Johnmaxmena2 / Wikimedia Commons (CC BY 4.0)